Archive pour le mot-clef ‘economy’

Italy : one firm out of 50 subject to insolvency procedure

Wednesday 25 January 2012

All European countries undergo the consequences of the financial crisis. Italy is obviously one of them.
The truth had been hidden by the previous government which minimized the impact of the crisis; the Monti government keeps reminding to citizens how critical the situation has become and you can feel it even in the daily life.

Firms, and SMEs in particular, are the first victims. This is especially worrying because Italy has twice as many SMEs as France. Entrepreneurship is a deeply rooted tradition but remains fragile because it is anchored in familial business very small enterprises of less than 4 persons. Familial SMEs remain fragmented and do not follow always the most modern business practices which put them especially at risk in times of crisis. I dare to say that most Italian SMEs are not well prepared to face an economic downturn.

The latest statistics show that 1 Italian firm out of 50 (2%) is currently subject to an insolvency proceeding. Early this year Italian newspaper announced that another 34000 firms were at risk of falling in the same trap, a worrying figure. The latter can be compared to the situation of Belgium where more or less 1000 firms go bankrupt each month.

Several countries (among them Belgium) had ruled on exceptional subsidies to limit bankruptcies. I’m wondering what the fate of these subsidies will be, given that budgets have to be cut and expenses drastically reduced. What is best? Sustain artificially with public money old-fashioned firms or let them die to promote a new generation of more modern firms on the middle and long-term?

My take:

I don’t have the answer to that question but I think there is no good answer. Eventually I fear that an arbitrary ruling, like in the antique Rome, will decide on whether those firms will survive or die.

I want to be scared … let’s have a look at Belgium’s firms bankruptcies figures

Wednesday 14 September 2011

The Belgium statistical institute just published the latest bankruptcies figures. It’s far from being positive. Here’s an extract:

In July 2011, 599 businesses in Belgium went bankrupt, a rise of 0.8% compared to July 2010.

The bankruptcies in July resulted in a loss of 1,304 jobs: 744 full-time employees, 354 part-time employees and 206 salaried employers lost their jobs.

The number of bankruptcies in the first seven months of 2011 amounts to 5,830, a rise of 2.5% compared to the same period last year.

What I find even more scaring is the evolution of bankruptcies since the financial crisis started. Let’s have a look

My take:

It’s easy to see that the disaster started in 2008. Let’s face it: we’re talking about a 35% increase of bankruptcies between early 2008 and July 2011. 35% !!!

And that’s only the starting point. We’re now entering the last phase of the systemic crisis, something that no one before us never experienced. This last phase is the beginning of the end. Many more firms will die. Let’s think about what well may happen: jobs will be lost, unemployment will rise, banks (already in a troubles) will become even more careful, interest rates will go up, access to credit will be drastically reduced which will impede the creation of new businesses. The question you may ask is: are we about to enter a stagflation period? Time will tell.